Resolving the impasse? Or spiraling towards civil war (Thailand’s election part 2)

Posted on | juli 1, 2011 | No Comments

Watana Muangsook (center)

A briefer blog this week as we await the Thai general election on Sunday July 3^rd. Reading various news stories, blogs and twitter feeds the Internet is awash with rumors of potential deals between the Thai establishment and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on the one hand, and threats of a security crisis that could postpone the election on the other.

The behind-the-scenes deal, first reported by Shawn Crispin of Asia Times Online, was allegedly made between Watana Muangsook (representing Thaksin), Queen Sirkit’s lady-in-waiting Jarungjit Thikara and the defense minister Prawit Wongsuwan in Brunei. According to Crispin’s sources the military has agreed to allow Puea Thai to form a government unopposed in the increasingly likely event that it will win Sunday’s poll. In return Thaksin has allegedly agreed not to pursue politically or legally those members of the military responsible both for the 2006 coup that overthrew him as well as those behind last year’s crackdown in Bangkok. In addition the three sides have allegedly agreed to create a commission for reconciliation that will out to a referendum any proposed amnesty for Thaksin and the military.

Queen Sirkit

This story has been reported in the Thai Post and in several prominent blogs within Thailand, although in these reports the presence of the Queen’s lady-in-waiting is omitted. Given that all things ‘royal’ in Thailand are extremely politically sensitive and potentially subject to the country’s lesee majeste laws this is perhaps not surprising. However if any of this is true a deal only between Thaksin and the military is very different to a deal that includes the monarchy given its de facto extra-constitutional role.

However other stories circulating on the Internet suggest something far removed from reconciliation. Indeed on the contrary yesterday the Thai Internet TV station VoiceTV reported that one of the country’s Election Commissioners, Sodsri Sattayatham, announced that if new hostilities broke out between Thailand and Cambodia over the Preah Vihear temple this could lead to an “emergency situation” and a possible postponement of the election. Immediately the blogosphere and twitter started speculating on the prospect of the Thai military engineering an exchange with Cambodian forces in order to justify such a postponement.

What all these rumors speak to is, as this blog pointed out last week, a continuing impasse in Thailand between the rural and urban poor who are supporters of Thaksin and the Thai establishment represented by the troika of the monarchy, the Privy Council and the military allied with elements of Bangkok’s middle classes. Despite repeated attempts to end the political influence of the former Prime Minister the latest polls show Pheu Thai well ahead of the incumbent Democrats including in Bangkok itself where a June 16-22 poll showed PT on 37.9 per cent set to win 22 of the capital’s 33 seats.

Commander in Chief General Prayuth

Ultimately it will be much harder for the troika to oppose and obstruct Pheu Thai if it wins an outright majority rather than a plurality but there are clear elements within the military who are more inclined towards confrontation than reconciliation. During the campaign Commander-in-chief General Prayuth promoted hawkish colonels to take charge in areas of the country where Thaksin’s support base is located, had a very public spat with a Pheu Thai politician over an army-led anti-narcotic program and on June 23^rd put troops on full alert in the event of post election ‘chaos’.

However as Paul Chambers noted in an article in the journal Asian Survey last Fall the military itself is clearly factionalized. He notes that since 2006 the armed forces have become dominated by an arch-royalist Queen’s Guard faction, which consists of a “pre-cadet, class-based ascendancy”. The Thai military, he notes, is thus becoming more united ‘above’ but more ‘fissured’ below as non-commissioned junior officers become increasingly disenchanted with biased promotions processes. In addition he notes that during the 2010 confrontation in Bangkok some of the security forces were unwilling to disperse the crowds because of sympathies with the red-shirts. These soldiers have been nicknamed ‘watermelons’ because they are green outside (i.e. their military uniforms) but red inside.

If Crispin is correct then perhaps Thailand’s leaders have looked into the abyss and ‘blinked’, prompting the alleged dialogue in Brunei. One can only hope so since the alternative risks pushing Thailand ever closer to civil war.

* Read part 1: A very Thai farce

AUTHOR: Dr. Jason Abbott
URL: http://profjabbott.blogspot.com
E-MAIL: jason.abbott [at] louisville.edu