Mexico came out at the bottom of the pack on the 2012 Global Peace Index (GPI), released yesterday, garnering slot 135 out of a group of 158 countries. The GPI ranks nations on a scale of 1-5 based on 23 indicators associated with the absence of violence, with 5 being the least peaceful. Mexico garnered fives in “violent crime” and “deaths from internal conflict”. Other critical areas include fours in “political terror”, “homicides”, “access to weapons” and “perception of criminality”.

The world, and Latin America in particular, rose overall in peacefulness during the last year. Mexico is the notable exception, dropping from 105 out of 148 in 2010.

Mexico´s ranking comes as no surprise to people here. Most of the other countries in the lowest 15% are experiencing open conflict, with Somalia as the most violent country, followed by Afghanistan and Sudan. Mexico’s ranking reflects the degree to which its internal conflict cause by the war on drugs has risen in impact. 

The report concludes with this statement on the economic cost of violence:

1. Summary of 2011

There were three issues that defined 2011 in South Africa.

1) By far the most significant of these was the controversy over the Protection of State Information Bill. For many years the ANC’s critics — white, usually, though not always — have accused the party of having dictatorial tendencies. These accusations have by and large been nonsense. Until now. The Information Bill, which putatively protects state secrets from being released via the media — a canard if ever there was one — represents an Apartheid-style bill in post-apartheid clothing. If government has the ability to control, menace, and punish an independent media, that media ceases to be independent. Let’s say that you trust the current iteration of the ANC. And let’s say, fairly, that even as the party has had the necessary 2/3 of the vote, or close to it, to allow them unilaterally to amend the constitution, it has not done so. But whenever an act of government such as this passes a useful question to ask is not what this dispensation might do with it, but rather what a future, more draconian dispensation might do. The question is not whether one should trust this government. The question is whether to trust any potential future government.

What has been reassuring has been the extent to which the passage of the bill met with vibrant public dissent. Arguably civil society became more engaged with this issue than any other political question in the post-apartheid era. “Black Tuesday” protests both real and symbolic (in the form of wearing black and in many cases tape over one’s mouth) took place across the country and dominated the news cycle and brought out the best among journalists and public intellectuals. So far all of this protest was to little avail, but it is telling that South Africans did not passively take this news or gnash teeth and ball their fists impotently.

2) During the World War II era in the United States (and in other parts of the world) labor unions had tremendous potential leverage but chose not to exercise it, deciding instead to act for what they believe was the greater good. But once the war ended, so too did the gentleman’s agreement about mass strikes and as a result labor actions proliferated. The Public Sector Strikes that hammered South Africa throughout the country’s winter of labour discontent revealed both the extent of working class dissatisfaction with the ANC and served to reveal the hangover from the 2010 World Cup. By and large the unions chose not to strike during the World Cup the previous winter, but those chickens roosted this year and then some. COSATU may be in alliance with the ANC from an official governance standpoint. But the unions flexed their muscles throughout 2011, once again revealing that the tripartite Alliance might not be on all that sound footing.

3) The ANC’s very public rebuke of Julius Malema, the ANC Youth League’s enfant terrible, represents the latest act but not the last act in an ongoing drama. Malema stands, I’m going to assume, as the country’s Phoenix in waiting. Like Richard Nixon in the early 1960s Malema has vowed that he has exited politics. Trust me — whatever he says, Malema is not done with public life in South Africa. He is destined to rise from the ashes, and when he does, he will carry significant numbers of supporters with him. Maybe not enough to change the country’s political calculus, but enough to make the party hierarchy uncomfortable.

2. Most Unexpected Event

1) In a country where the unexpected is expected it is hard to identify one shocking event or incident. But for observers of South African sport 2011 was not a great year. The Springboks exited the World Cup in rather desultory fashion (though they did outplay Australia in every aspect of the game but the scoreboard, the scoreboard is the only measure that matters). Bafana Bafana was left on the outside looking in when the national team’s leadership did not realize that more than a tie was necessary to progress to the continent’s championship. And the Proteas? Well, they continue to be the best international cricket team never to assert its dominance and they don’t seem any closer to doing so now than they have since their return to international cricket.

But seriously — not knowing the rules of advancement for a major international tournament? Unforgivable.

2) I do know that many of you may not be as sports mad as I am. So the other big surprise, at least for me, was the anticlimactic way that Julius Malema stepped down from his perch at the ANC Youth League. Despite Malema’s Nixonian pronouncements that he’s done with public life, such disavowals are in the nature of the political phoenix. I’m willing to place wagers that we will, in fact, have Julius Malema to kick around in years to come.

3. Person/Group of the Year

There are three possibilities.

1) In a country where everything is political, especially that which isn’t, and that is so dominated by the ANC not only politically but culturally as well, is it any surprise that President Jacob Zuma stands at the top of this list? Love him, hate him, or tolerate him, Zuma is the essential figure in South African political life. It is quite possible that Zuma will face a political storm at the end of the year, but, assuming that he still holds on to power in the party he is likely to continue to maintain this spot for some time to come.

2) For sheer significance in a year in which a mass of public sector workers flexed some muscles and reminded people of the potentially outsized role of COSATU it is hard to overstate the importance of COSATU General Seceratary Zwelinzima Vavi. Vavi emerges every so often to speak, and when he does so, people listen. Vavi could prove to be a kingmaker. Keep an eye on him.

3) For all of the reasons stated above (and for more stated below) Julius Malema continues to be a vital figure in the country’s politics, no less so because of his avowal that he is exiting public life.

4. Forecast for 2012

1) Is the country looking at another Polokwane Moment? In December the ANC will meet in Magaung and in so doing will elect the party president and thus the almost certain winner of the country’s next national elections (and lots of other elected positions of importance). You will recall that in December 2007 the ANC ousted Thabo Mbeki from the party presidency, which began the process of his ultimate humiliation in stepping down from the presidency of the country months later. Jacob Zuma was the chief beneficiary of the events in Polokwane. But many in the party have not been especially comfortable with Zuma either personally or politically. And understandably so.

Will this dissatisfaction give way to a push similar to the one that pushed Mbeki from party leadership? The odds are against it, but Zuma has more detractors within the party than an ANC president should find comfortable. A further irony is that the ANC Youth League might be looking for Zuma’s scalp. There are rumors that Thabo Mbeki might be their man. How unfathomable would that be?

2) More on Malema: Indeed, I would not be surprised if he is visible by the time of the ANC’s party conference in Mangaung in December. Malema may for the time being be persona non grata in the ANC. But will that endure if there is enough of a public clamoring for Malema’s redemption? And if that does not happen, might Malema look toward another political party and another political party toward him?

3) And expect the ANC centenary to dominate the year. And for current party leaders to cloak themselves in that history. Whatever other predictions I make, this one, I’m pretty certain, will be right.

(By the way, in last year’s Year in Review post, which was about the continent as a whole, I think I did respectably in my forecast. The key? Much like with astrology or fortune telling, don’t get too specific!)

5. Best Book of 2011

In a year of good books about Africa, if I have to choose one to recommend, I would go with Stephen Chan’s fine Southern Africa: Old Treacheries and New Deceits, in which a respected academic expert on the region provides an accessible overview of the state of affairs in Southern Africa with particular emphasis on South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Zambia.

Have a great 2012, and thanks for reading.

AUTHOR: Derek Charles Catsam
URL: http://africa.foreignpolicyblogs.com
E-MAIL: derekcatsam [at] hotmail.com

In 2011, there were thousands of stories that had an impact in people’s lives. Some news stories were of national interest (to the US, Venezuela, etc.), but they did not have much significance beyond the nation or region. I have decided on ten stories that I believe either had a far reaching global impact in so far as they manifested something profound about institutions, or they signified a change in society and directly or indirectly impacted or may impact the lives of millions of people around the world. 

Although the future of the countries engaged in the uprisings appears to be helping the Islamic elements vying for power, no regime will be able to survive for very long without subjecting itself to an integration model that the wealthy countries, especially the West, would impose on Islamic nations. In short, Arab Spring is highly unlikely to result in the fulfillment of the rebels’ goals of popular sovereignty, and very likely that regimes similar to those overthrown will emerge. To the degree that the local elites and the West fear that popular democracy constitutes an obstacle to economic and geopolitical influence, Arab Spring represented the most significant development since decolonization.

2. Scandals of Powerful Men:
2011 was no different than previous years in terms of mega scandals involving powerful men from around the world, men whose policies impacted millions of people, or who represented the decadence and corruption of concentrated power in otherwise democratic societies. One of the most fascinating cases involved Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi. He started the year as relatively popular prime minister and ended up forced out in disgrace, not because of his indiscreet taste for young models and other teenagers, but because he failed to adopt austerity measures that Germany and France demanded.

Under the watch of the infamous “Il Cavaliere”, Italy followed the road of accumulating massive public debt, forced to accept unprecedented austerity, and a technocrat government. As an oligarch who enjoyed both political and economic power, and whose lifestyle was tabloid material, Berlusconi along with French Socialist politicians and former International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing Director Dominique Strauss-Khan represented the decadence and corruption of the excesses in today’s political economy, decadence that is at least in part responsible for the gap between the oligarchs that rule democratic societies.

A symbol of global power and influence, Dominique Strauss-Khan was expected to be the French Socialist Party’s candidate for president when the sex scandal erupted and he found himself in entangled with the American justice system. One significant aspect of the scandal was the rumor mill about conspiracy theories, while another was that DSK represented the essence of the depth to which politics, including Socialist politics, had sunk. A symbol of wealth, political power and global influence through the IMF, DSK, like Berlusconi, was the embodiment of contemporary culture of the rich. While the DSK scandal was a matter of a single person and his tastes, because that person was IMF chief and presumed candidate to head France’s Socialist Party, the scandal had the aroma of the duplicity embedded in bourgeois politics and finance capitalism.

On 8 December 2011, John Corzine, former senator and Governor of New Jersey, and former Goldman Sachs and MF Global Holdings CEO, claimed that he had no idea of the whereabouts of $1.2 billion investor money that MF is ‘missing’. Corzine told the House Agriculture Committee that he was surprised to learned that the money was missing, and owing to poor memory, he cannot recollect specifics of circumstances surrounding the missing money.

He admitted lobbying the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), headed by a Corzine colleague from Goldman Sachs, but in his defense, he noted that he was not the only one lobbying CFTC! While the US has seen many such cases, especially from the Reagan era forward, the Corzine case is one that clearly demonstrates that financial corruption in inexorably linked to political corruption, at a time that the US and European governments have been asking ordinary citizens to continue paying for the duration for the crisis that finance capitalism created.

3. Japan Earthquake-Tsunami and Fukushima disaster:
 In March, the natural disaster was a tragedy that could not be prevented, but it caused another even more serious crisis in Japan with the nuclear power plants that were old, loosely regulated and lacked the appropriate safeguards to protect the local population. Among the first to be blamed for the accident were the Japanese government and the IAEA for failing to do a good job at sounding the alarm for aging nuclear plants, and the companies that built and operated the nuclear plants.

While the earthquake-tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster sounded the alarm about nuclear power throughout the world, a number of governments declared that they would proceed with their plans for cheap and clean nuclear energy, while others like Germany and Switzerland, Sweden, Venezuela,  and Italy admitted that the time had come to rethink nuclear power.

Other governments from Australia and Taiwan to Holland, Canada, and Chile stated that they would need more safeguards and more rigid regulation for nuclear power plants. Like the Chernobyl disaster, Fukushima’s legacy worked as a reminder to the world on the need for investment in safer energy sources of the future, energizing the ‘green’ and anti-nuclear advocates as well as those that have argued in favor of restructuring the IAEA so that it can do a better job as a watchdog, instead of having inordinate influences from the nuclear industry. 

4. Greece and the Eurozone debt crisis:
In 2010, Greece was the trigger that set off an explosion across Europe by the end of 2011. Never was Greece as much in world news headlines as it has been in the past year, largely because it represents everything gone wrong with finance capitalism and the corrupt and parasitic credit economic system that had been supported by a welfare state transitioning from social to corporate welfare.

Under IMF-EU austerity policies, Greece began sinking deeper into debt, requiring more massive bailout loans, enduring more socioeconomic hardships, and becoming a greater burden on European taxpayers. A somewhat similar scenario exists in Portugal and Ireland. When it became apparent that Italy, one of the G-7 and Eurozone’s third largest economy, was following the ‘Greek path’, and signs indicated even France was right behind Italy, it was apparent that the Greek crisis was in fact an EU crisis of confidence in the credit economy. 

Led by Germany, in November the EU decided that the road out of crisis is fiscal discipline, a recipe that will most definitely help strengthen the wavering euro and the strongest eurozone members with surpluses, while leaving behind the rest of Europe. In a desperate move to protect the large banks in the core countries and the euro’s value, Germany prevailed on the rest of the eurozone members to accept a fiscal solution, namely centralization, to a problem that can be solved by a liberal monetary policy and Keynesian stimulative measures. The result of the German ‘fiscal fix’ was continued loss of the euro’s value, continued alarms about EU members credit downgrading, and continued forecasts of a deepening recession in 2012, with the result of a much weaker and more rebellious  middle class.The evolution of the EU debt crisis and its handling by governments will determine the course of the world economy in 2012.
 
5. Grass roots mass movements: from US to Europe:
I think that TIME magazine chose “The Protester” appropriately as person of the year, but not an individual protester, not a Tunisian, not a Muslim, not an African, European, American or Russian; rather a protester from the neighborhood of any major European, American, Middle Eastern-North African, or Russia city. 2011 was the year of the protested from the neighborhood and from across the entire world.

Spain kicked off the mass grass roots protest movement in the spring, but it spread to the rest of Europe, to the US, Israel and Russia, after Vladimir Putin’s narrow presidential victory that a segment of the population deemed fraudulent. Political, economic, and social conditions deteriorate for the majority in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, and Italy, and to a lesser extent the rest of Europe, US, Russia and Israel.

All of these movements are against concentrated economic and political power, and all aspire to some type of pro-democracy regime and institutions designed to serve all of the people and not merely the top ten percent. Given that the political parties (center, center-left and conservative) have not heeded the cries of the indignant middle classes and workers, how long will it be before the mass protest movement is converted into a mass uprising?

Rather than dying off, the grassroots protests movements gained strength in 2011, and they are likely to become much more significant when conditions deteriorate for the middle class and workers in 2012. In the last analysis, two decades after the fall of Communism grassroots movements represent that a segment of the population is apparently convinced that bourgeois democracy under neoliberal policies serves a very small segment of society.

6. Emerging Asian Global Hegemony and Regional Pacific Blocs
As China emerged he world’s second largest economy, and India proved to have enormous economic growth  potential, 2011 was the year for regional bloc consolidation. In July, Russia introduced a regional integration plan, forming potentially the world’s largest free trade zone that would extend from China to EU. Russia formed a customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus and inviting Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to join among others.

In early December, 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries signed an agreement creating the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, (CELAC). Intended as a regional economic bloc, the goal is to exclude the U.S. and Canada that have historically dominated Latin America. As champion of this new regional bloc, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez argued that: “We’re laying the foundation stone for integration. Only unity will make us free.” While the dream of greater independence may bring romantic images of Simon Bolivar in the minds of Latin Americans, the reality is that Brazil is expected to continue its race toward economic stardom in 2012, leaving behind most of the republics, some of which can hardly afford to keep Canadian and US investment, thus political influence, away as Chavez wishes.

Under Franco-German leadership, the EU became a much tighter regional bloc through fiscal centralization, while the US reached out to consolidate its position in the Asia-Pacific region. In November, President Obama took advantage of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, sending a strong signal to China that the US would not surrender the broader Asia Pacific region to China.  Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam joined the US, with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda expressing an interest, but unlikely to join under the terms that the US has imposed. America’s future rests in the Asia Pacific region, given the troubles of Europe and its limited growth prospects, as well as the problems in the Middle East that has been providing the US with oil for almost a century.

The US is trying to make sure that it retains a solid trade bloc from which both China and EU would have less competitive advantage. At this stage, the Trans-Pacific Partnership may appear to be more symbolic than real, given that it represents a mere 6% of US total trade. However, the new bloc has enormous potential as a free trade zone that could eventually integrate up to two dozen countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group. But the potential of the Trans-Pacific Partnership is immense. Regional blocs are reminiscent of pre-1945 world division of power; some analysts argue pre-1914, others interwar. Global competition is becoming so intense against the background of shifting economic balances of power from the West to Asia that we will continue to see the consolidation of blocs in the next ten years.

7.  Massacre: January 2011, Tuscon, Arizona; July 2011, Utoya, Norway:
There were numerous mass killings in a number of countries in 2011. The most significant in terms of the mode of operation and political goals were those in Tuscon, Arizona in January and Norway in July. Although in both cases the individuals were mentally disturbed, the motives were political and the influences on the murderers came from extreme right wing ideologies.

The attack on Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and six other victims falling to gunfire by a disturbed young man appeared like a ‘TAXI-DRIVER’ (motion picture) type episode. It is true that TEA PARTY Republicans raising extremist rhetoric to the level of encouraging half-crazed individuals to commit political crimes cannot be held responsible for the Tuscon massacre. On the other hand, the polarizing rhetoric by the Tea Party elements was a contributing element to the incident. Psychiatrists may conclude that Jared Lee Loughnern would have committed the exact same crime even if the Tea Party never existed. However, it does exist and its polarizing extremist rhetoric does have an affect on the minds of all kinds of people, from the average non-political person to the insane.

The tragedy in Norway took place on 22 July 2011. It left 69 people dead and 66 wounded, most of them young. Like the Tuscon massacre, the one in Norway was also politically-motivated, revealing a disturbing trend across Europe that is a sign of rising ultra right-wing activity according to authorities. Anders Behring Breivik, responsible for the mass murders, is deemed mentally disturbed as was expected. He had targeted the Labor Party government and was out to cleanse Noway of non-Viking elements. As early as 2002, Anders and other far-right individuals attended a London meeting where they discussed a xenophobic agenda, especially targeting Muslims. Breivik was apparently one of the founding members of the Knights Templar, a group named after a Medieval Christian crusading order that set out to conquer the Holy Land.

In Norway, the impact of the massacre on society was one of greater unity, sharp rise in youth political involvement and a number of stores removing from their shelves material that was related to martial arts and war games. By contrast, in the US the media tried its best to argue that the Tuscon massacre was the work of a disturbed individual, while the rest of society was fine and no action was needed. In short, Norway tried to heal the wounds of society by coming together, resorting to collectivist approach and taking measures to lessen the commercialization of martial arts and war games, while in the US nothing happened because there is an assumption that the polarizing political climate and culture of violence does not breed violence, but the individual does.

8. Famine in the Horn of Africa:
Famine in Africa, especially owing to drought in East Africa, is not a new story. However,beginning in July, a severe drought caused a major food crisis in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. In July, the UN intervened when it was too late and people were starving of famine and disease, while the rest of the world watched,partly because East Africa is an area know for piracy, terrorist activity, civil strife, and political corruption.

Although climate change and lack of water conservation are the main culprits of the famine that is continuing and expected to subside at some point in 2012, the underlying problem and solution is political to the crisis that resulted in a refugee population of about one million people. The US is primarily interested in East Africa as an area to fight terrorism, while Europeans are interested in fighting piracy that is costing an estimate $22 billion to the global economy. Warlords in Somalia will fight for any side, including CIA, as long as the payment is sufficient, while hundreds of thousands are dying of disease and starvation.

The African Development Bank and IMF in cooperation with US and EU have been promoting water privatization in Africa. Water ownership by large foreign corporations means that 400 million Africans without access to drinking water are victims or potential victims in a continent that has large water availability, but lacks continental-wide coordination and management. Water development in Africa is a salient factor to chronic famine, but not as long as IMF, World Bank and Western governments impose privatization schemes intended to enrich multinational corporations that own water supply and distribution. In the absence of cooperation between African governments on water development issues, and in the absence of foreign aid for water development projects designed to sustain the growing population, water-related conflict is inevitable.

9. ARTS – The Social Failure curated by Bjarne Melgaard.
Of the countless glamor stories about movie stars, singers, models and celebrity rich people, the most intriguing art story that caught my attention is one about an art exhibit that has a very important social message. In the past two decades or so, there has been global awareness of AIDS, especially in the domain of prevention, and in that respect artists from singers and actors to painters and writers have helped to deliver the message.

While there are organizations such as “Art for AIDS”, “Queer Arts Resource”, “Make Art Stop AIDS”, and others, in 2011 the Office for Contemporary Art Norway organized a program entitled “Beyond Death: Viral Discontents and Contemporary Notions about AIDS”. As part of the 54th International Art Exhibition at La Biennale di Venezia, the course by curator Bjarne Melgaard included a showing depicting pleasure, plain, and “the failures of heterosexuality”. Melgaard’s work has attracted a great deal of international attention in various art circles around the world, as it stands to remind people in conventional mode of thinking about this disease that the manner that mainstream society reacted to it has been a failure of humanity.


10. Science – Cloning and Stem Cells:
In 2011, the discovery of distant planets that could sustain human life is very exciting indeed to remind geocentrically conditioned humans of the endless possibilities in the universe. It is equally equally exciting to learn that CERN’s search for the “God particle” (Higgs boson) may change physics as we know it, but not people’s daily lives. However, a more practical development with enormous benefit to human beings in the future is the Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer (SCNT).

A process responsible for cloning animals, SCNT could be used for therapeutic purposes – curing Parkinson’s Disease for example. While SCNT has and will raise ethical controversy similar to stem cell research, everything from creating a human egg market to cloning humans, for now the hope is that SCNT holds the promise for more practical therapeutic applications. In 2022, the Bush administration cut off all funding for SCNT research, and a year later the UN adopted Costa Rica’s proposal to have all member states prohibit human cloning. The potential for enormous benefit to society because of CSNT ‘therapeutic cloning’, may not be enough for governments to support this new field, unless pharmaceutical companies are behind it because they see the potential for enormous profits.

AUTHOR: Jon Kofas
URL: http://jonkofas.blogspot.com
E-MAIL: jonkofas [at] yahoo.com

Of the 53 countries assessed (South Sudan had not yet gained autonomy and Western Sahara has not yet been recognized as an independent nation state) here are the top ten:

1. Mauritius  2. Cape Verde  3. Botswana  4. Seychelles  5. South Africa  6. Namibia  7. Ghana  8. Lesotho  9. Tunisia  10. Egypt

Clearly Southern Africa does well, with four representatives in the top ten, as do islands, with three.

The bottom ten (from the very worst to the merely awful):

53. Somalia  52. Chad  51. Zimbabwe  50. Democratic Republic of Congo  49. Central African Republic  48. Sudan  47. Eritrea  46. Côte d’Ivoire  45. Equitorial Guinea  44. Guinea-Bissau

Obviously the instability in the Horn and in Central Africa explains a great deal of the composition of the bottom feeders. And parts of West Africa continue to be wracked with instability though that region seems to have some of the continent’s greatest variance with a number of success stories (Ghana, Benin at 11, Senegal at 15) to go with those on the other end of the spectrum.

AUTHOR: Derek Charles Catsam
URL: http://africa.foreignpolicyblogs.com
E-MAIL: derekcatsam [at] hotmail.com

1. HAITI

3. US UNEMPLOYMENT
The US was officially declared out of recession in June 2009, but at the end of 2010 the official unemployment stands at 9.7% (14.8 million) of  American workers unofficially…well… who knows? It is actually true that the recession was over in June 2009 for corporate America only, given that corporate America is sitting on more than one trillion dollar cash reservoir, waiting for better opportunities to invest… perhaps in 2011. It is also true that bonuses, stock options, high salaries that are 500 times higher than those of the average worker, and other executive perks have continued for those valuable managers of corporate America amid the recession – some of these executives in the financial sector that caused the recession and 10% unemployment. Corporate executives really feel the pain of the unemployed worker and the middle class and will do their part to make that pain go away, just as soon as they get their cut first.

4. WIKILEAKS
This web site has made a impact on a world scale, with its flamboyant founder Julian Assange who was determined to make an impression in the world by exposing government secrets in the name of ‘free press’, citizens’ right to know, and serve humanity until… the price is right! This story will remain an important one in 2011 and I suspect that Assange will make a great deal more money than what he is currently receiving for the book deal. Maybe Assange can go on a tour with Lady Gaga and they can promote each other’s particular talent. Could the profit motive along with fame and glory be behind WIKILEAKS, and if so, does it really matter as long as WIKILEAKS satisfies the public’s right to know what governments are doing (at least a segment of the public)? With all his flaws, Assange has actually torn down the complacent and conformist blinders from mainstream media and forced it to see what reporting should be about.

5. AUSTERITY for EU’s PIIGS 
The EU public debt crisis resulted in the euro’s lower value, and in joint IMF-EU bailout packages for Greece and Ireland – Portugal and Spain perhaps to follow – and all EU to adopt rigid fiscal policies and generate higher unemployment and lower living standards. It is all for a noble goal, transferring money from the middle class and workers to banks and bond investors. The public debt problem proved draining to the EU finances and dealt a blow to Europe’s image as a solid integrated economy whose integrity cannot be rattled by cyclical economic crises. Trying to prevail in the global competition between US and China, EU recognized that the union is strong only in the expansionary economic cycle and very fragile in the downturn. This is more a political lesson than financial or economic one. While the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) will have their most difficult 2011 since the Great Depression, with most of the rest of the EU suffering, the union will survive the contracting cycle and it will slowly re-emerge with positive GDP growth for most countries by 2013.

6. CHILEAN MINERS
Chilean Miners captured the world’s imagination and it was indeed a miracle that people from all corners of the planet were hoping and praying for the trapped miners. There have been many mining accidents in the past, including in 2010, but none captured the world’s attention of the specific one in Chile. It was as though the survival and successful rescue of the specific group of miners represented the ideal that humans can prevail over natural and man made catastrophe, therefore any problem can be solved. Never mind, of course, that in similar mining accidents in 2010 people were never rescued, as long as a few make it, there is hope and that is all human beings want.

7. CHINA
In 2010 China replaced Japan as the world’s second largest economy. More important, by continuing to stimulate its economy based on export-oriented growth, China was the catalyst in keeping stability in the world economy and preventing an even worse recession. China did all this by playing a quintessentially capitalist role, supporting IMF austerity measures, and offering massive trade deals to various countries around the world. If China had lapsed into recession, as it will in the next global contracting cycle, economic hard times would have been much harder not just for China’s raw material suppliers like Australia, Canada, and others, but for the G-7. China’s contribution in 2010 (and ever since 2008) was that it helped the world economy from falling into a cliff. China in fact may play an instrumental stabilizing role in 2011 to make certain that bond rates of debt-ridden EU do not go through the roof if left to speculators.

8. US FOREIGN POLICY
In 2010, US foreign policy has had a number of successes and misses, including:
a) ameliorating relations with Russia, especially in key strategic areas that include greater cooperation through NATO and pushing for ratification the strategic nuclear arms treaty (START), despite adamant Republican opposition regarding the rapid manner by which Democrats are pushing for a quick vote. The Russians have pledged to ratify it by late January 2011.
b) pursuing co-existence without the inane rhetoric that former US administrations used has helped US-China relations. The proof of cooperation can be seen in a number of areas, above all North Korea which remains extremely sensitive area for US, Japan, Russia, and EU that presumably want to solve the crisis through diplomacy, and by extension collaborate on a common solution for Iran’s nuclear program. To the degree that it can control events in N. Korea, China is the catalyst and much more important for the US than either Russia or Japan.
c) US has had no surprises in the volatile Middle East. Ending military occupation of both Iraq and Afghanistan that have drained the US of economic resources and diminished its military power is an indication that “America will always do the right thing, but only after  exhausting all other options“. (Winston Churchill)  The key to the region remains the Palestinian question and there has been no progress in that front. If Obama is ‘to do the right thing’, 2011 is the last chance before the presidential race of 2012. That the US lifted the ban on Iraq’s ability to develop a nuclear program – a prelude to also developing nuclear weapons in the future – is actually a move in the right direction in so far as the strategic balance of power may be more secure in the future – a significant issue given Iran’s nuclear program that the US & EU oppose.

9. HUMAN TRAFFICKING & NARCOTICS TRADE
Because of the global recession, illegal narcotics and human trafficking that are integral parts of official and private sector corruption continued unabated in 2010. The UN Global Initiative adopted ten years ago, to which the US has signed on and provides detailed information on all countries, has not had an impact in either area of illegal activity, also linked to illegal arms sales. In many cases, girls under the age of 18 (mostly from Asia, Africa and Latin America) are the victims in the profitable human trafficking business. Just as there has been little progress in fighting the expanding human trafficking business, similarly, there has been no progress on containing the illegal narcotics trade, which naturally entails the illegal gun trade and money laundering. There will probably be a rise in narcotics trade as well as human trafficking in 2011. This is largely because of the rising poverty in poorer countries that supply the ‘pleasure commodities’ and the demand for ‘pleasure commodities’ among more affluent people and countries.

10. HUMAN CREATIVITY
Human creativity hardly receives much attention, unless it is inexorably linked to profits, military, and/or political power. Human creativity intended and applied for the promotion of human welfare is the most valued trait we possess. Of all the achievements in the arts and sciences, I want to single out two related to medicine. First, what is described as a revolution in communication for paralyzed people suffering ‘locked-in syndrome’. With a voice synthesizer implanted in the brain, it is possible to induce vowel sounds. Second, in the area of biotechnology and biology, researchers have built a synthetic bacterial genome. This discovery that can lead to revolutionizing the energy and pharmaceutical industries.

AUTHOR: Jon Kofas
URL: http://jonkofas.blogspot.com
E-MAIL: jonkofas [at] yahoo.com