Over the past month the international community has witnessed unprecedented political opposition and revolutions in the Middle East. Already this so called ‘Jasmine Revolution’ or ‘Arab Spring’ has overturned two of the countries long-standing political regimes, the Ben-Ali regime in Tunisia and more surprisingly the 30 year rule of strongman Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. In Libya it has resulted in the descent to near Civil War between Muammar Qaddafi and pro-democracy rebels while its demonstration effects have incited and continue to incite protest in countries from Bahrain to Oman, and from Jordan to Morocco. Much of this caught everyone by surprise, be they academics, diplomats, journalists or policy advisors. Nevertheless this outburst of popular discontent reflects a number of long-term trends, most specifically a demographic explosion in the 1970s and 1980s means that an estimated 65 per cent of the region’s population is under 30. While significant sums of money have been poured into education, both secondary and tertiary, youth unemployment is a major socio-economic problem with an estimated one in four unemployed. Such high levels of unemployment combined with pervasive levels of corruption, authoritarian political systems with extensive security surveillance and harassment, and the huge growth in the number of users of social network sites (Egypt has for example over 5 millon Facebook users of whom 58% are under 25) provided a potent combination the repercussions of which are still playing out as we speak.

This begs the question as to whether such a popular uprising could happen in that other bastion of authoritarian and quasi-democratic regimes, Southeast Asia. Could the demonstration effects spread to countries as diverse as Cambodia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, among others? Leaders in these countries are clearly worried. Last month the Malaysian Prime Minister Najib issued a stark warning saying “Don’t think what is happening in Tunisia and Egypt will also happen in Malaysia.. We will not allow it to happen here”. Former deputy Prime Minister and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim however had a different take remarking that the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt should be a warning signal to other autocracies “whether in the Middle East, Pakistan or Southeast Asia”. Anwar continued noting that the demise of regimes where corruption and nepotism flourished, should remind Malaysians that governments built on the suppression of citizens are always temporary.

In Cambodia, strongman Hun Sen, who has dominated national politics since 1989 and been Prime Minister since 1998, was even starker in his warnings stating on January 20th, in response to comments on a Radio Free Asia report that a Tunisian-like protest could occur in Cambodia. Hun Sen lashed out stating “I have to send a message to people who want to inspire a riot (like) in Tunisia … I will close the door and beat the dog,” Again in contrast the embattled long-standing anti-corruption opposition figure Sam Rainsy echoed Anwar’s views stated on February 2nd, the day pro-Mubarak forces attacked anti-Mubarak supporters in Tahir square, that “I see that it is not long … that there would be such a situation in Cambodia that is the same as Egypt and Tunisia, where people have ousted leaders from power.” 


In Vietnam the government have already ratcheted up a crackdown on dissidents but this has not stopped growing online calls for pro-democracy protests in the country. On February 21st one of Vietnam’s leading dissidents Dr Nguyen Dan Que, 69, launched an appeal in Ho Chi Minh City asking people to take to the streets to save the country. His appeal was taken up by a Vietnamese website urging supporters of political change to meet each Sunday in Hanoi and HCMC. Another dissident group, Bloc 8406, which issued a manifesto on democratization on April 8th 2006, issued an online statement in which it urged Vietnamese to follow the example of North Africa and demand greater democracy and human rights.

Of greater concern for the Vietnamese are reports (picked up and broadcast online on CNN) that on February 17th an engineer called Pham Thanh Son set himself on fire to protest at the confiscation of his family’s property by local authorities. Although the authorities claim his death was accidental, caused by the gas tank of his motorcycle exploding, such an incident echoes the self-immolation of Mohamed Buoazizi in Tunisia, whose protest and death sparked the beginning of the unrest in Tunisia. More symbolically both acts echo the infamous self-immolation of the Buddhist monk Thich Quang Duc in Saigon in 1963 whose sacrifice led to the downfall of President Ngo Dinh Diem in South Vietnam.

Even in the region’s most brutal and repressive regime, Burma, where a military Junta has presided over the country since 1988, a Facebook group entitled ‘Just Do It Against Military Dictatorship’ was set up at the end of February denouncing Burmese military chief Senior-General Than Shwe, and as in Egypt urging the army to join with the people. The group has prompted the distribution of anti-government materials in a number of cities across the country and while it only had 1,374 ‘friends’ when this piece was written, Facebook has become the second most popular website in Burma with over 400,000 members.

Obviously there are clear differences between these regimes and their counterparts in North Africa. In the case of Vietnam political power no longer resides in the figure of a single authoritarian leader but instead the succession problem has largely been resolved, as in China, by the retirement and promotion of successive generations of party apparatchiks. In addition in Cambodia and Vietnam government censorship and the security and intelligence forces are both more pervasive, heavy-handed and to date proven more pro-active in anticipating political unrest and acting quickly and decisively to ‘nip-it-in –the-bud’ before such unrest can appeal to wider constituencies.

Nevertheless the median age in Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam is like Tunisia and Egypt under 30 years old. In Malaysia unemployment levels are very low in comparison to international averages, less than 4 per cent of the total work force were unemployed as of 2008. However youth unemployment was almost three times this figure at 10.7 per cent. Similar disparities exist in Cambodia where according to International Labor Organization figures for youth unemployment are expected to rise to 14.8 per cent against a total unemployment figure of 3.5 per cent.

Likewise allegations of corruption and cronyism are widespread across the region with Transparency International rating Burma, Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam respectively as 176th, 154th, 56th and 116th in their 2010 Corruption Perceptions ranking (out of 178 countries). While Malaysia’s figure does not appear bad in comparison it should be noted that over the past decade Malaysia has steadily fallen down T.I.’s ranking from a high of 33 in 2002. Indeed the spread of corruption and the retrenchment in civil liberties since 2008 led the Wall Street Journal to remark, in an article today (March 4th), that Malaysia, “once regarded as one of Asia’s most promising emerging economies.. has soured”.

In the second part of this article on whether the widespread political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East can spread to Southeast Asia I will explore the impact and effect of social networking in the region and then proffer some conclusions on whether we are likely to see similar demonstrations effects prompt political reform or revolution.

AUTHOR: Dr. Jason Abbott
URL: http://profjabbott.blogspot.com
E-MAIL: jason.abbott [at] louisville.edu

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