National Independent Poll (Encuesta Nacional Independiente)

Posted on | juni 13, 2012 | No Comments

Josefina Vázquez Mota

The Citizen’s Front in Defense of an Effective and Free Vote presented a poll done by the company Berumen and Associates, whose results throw a technical draw between Enrique Peña Nieto and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, candidates to the presidency of the republic under the PRI-Green Party and PRD-PT-Citizens’ Movement coalitions, respectively, followed by Josefina Vázquez Mota, from the PAN, in a distant third place.

Ordered by the Observatorio Universitario Electoral (Electoral College Observatory), composed mainly by academics of the Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (Metropolitan Autonomous University), the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (National Autonomous University of Mexico) and El Colegio de México (The College of Mexico), the poll establishes the following data regarding voting intention: EPN, 35.9 per cent; AMLO, 31.9 and JV, 20.7.

In the event, John M. Ackerman gave a context presentation, followed by Amílcar Sandoval who read a rebuttal statement to the one displayed by IFE published during the weekend, in which he affirmed that the electoral umpire presents severe deficiencies fulfilling its role, citing as an example the topic of polls, where the Institute behaves as a mere registrar office by receiving reports on the methodologies without bringing them under analysis.

Edmundo Berumen (general director of the polling company) followed, offering various methodological details on the exercise of registering voters’ preferences: a sample designed under a strictly probabilistic approach to be applied in 600 electoral sections of the national territory. A total of 3 thousand 480 completed interviews were collected, raised between 30 May and 6 June, respecting the implementation of the sample design up until the household level, with up to three visits per household and without a substitution scheme, among other characteristics.

It should be made clear that, according to Berumen, the majority of the polls thus far released in this electoral process do not go over more than 200 electoral sections nor do they respect the probabilistic approach.

According to Ackerman, the poll shows that the ongoing process turned into an election between two, as recently pointed out by Reforma’s poll, and, he noted, is not the poll in this newspaper the one that is out of range but the others – that sustain that a lead very ahead of the rest of the contenders continues to exist- even if they are the majority, because polls are not about majorities but about scientific rigor.

AUTHOR: Laura Carlsen
URL: www.cipamericas.org and http://americasmexico.blogspot.com
E-MAIL: lecarlsen [at] gmail.com

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